By- Mahadi Tukur Almizan
Israeli army is currently facing significant readiness challenges, particularly in preparation for potential conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. A recent report by Israeli journalist Alon Ben David highlights that extensive engagement in Gaza over nine months has severely depleted Israel's military capabilities and left it unprepared for broader campaigns.
According to David's analysis in Hebrew Maariv, more than 500 armored vehicles have been damaged by Palestinian resistance forces in Gaza, surpassing initial estimates of ammunition consumption outlined in military plans. This depletion has led to tensions, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alleging delays in US arms shipments, which he suggests could hinder military initiatives in Lebanon.
The prolonged conflict in Gaza has also taken a toll on Israeli troops, affecting over 666 soldiers killed, nearly 4,000 injured, and more than 11,000 requiring mental health support. Despite remaining motivated and committed, soldiers are reported to be physically and mentally fatigued, potentially impacting their operational effectiveness in future engagements, such as potential operations in southern Lebanon.
David underscores concerns that while the Israeli army remains capable of defending itself and inflicting damage on adversaries, its current state may not enable significant achievements against Hezbollah. This sentiment is echoed by a senior air force reserve officer who, knowledgeable about military plans, has cautioned against initiating a prolonged campaign in Lebanon, citing potential strategic risks and adverse outcomes.
Recent statements from Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, following discussions in Washington, indicate Israel's preference for settlement rather than war with Lebanon, emphasizing a desire to keep Hezbollah away from border regions. However, internal debates within Israel's security cabinet highlight differing views, including assertions from National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir regarding the inevitability of conflict and the prospect of achieving decisive outcomes.
In broader diplomatic contexts, discussions with US officials suggest caution among Israeli counterparts regarding the feasibility and strategic consequences of escalating conflicts with Lebanon. Despite public posturing, there appears to be consensus that achieving military goals without triggering wider regional instability remains a complex and challenging prospect for Israel.
Overall, the Israeli military's current state of readiness, influenced by recent conflicts and strategic assessments, underscores the complexities and risks associated with potential future engagements, particularly in the volatile context of Lebanon's southern border.
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